It comes to something when your most one-eyed supporter deserts a sinking ship. When Wallaby icon David Campese started looking for a lifeboat in his comments immediately before and after the first Test in Brisbane, the writing was already on the wall.
After the British and Irish Lions had lost their first game in Dublin to Argentina, a characteristically ebullient ‘Campo’ had been full of testiness and mischief, predicting a clean sweep for the Wallabies: “they’ll be toast Down Under, and I’d go so far as to say they’ll lose 3-0 unless they can fix a few things and fix them quickly.”
By the time the first Test at the Suncorp spun around, his opinion had sobered significantly in the absence of key forwards Bobby Valetini and Will Skelton:
“[Australia’s] depth is tested when two or three of [their] absolute world class players are not available and the loss of those forwards, and a couple of others such as Taniela Tupou and Nic White, is huge,” Campese wrote in his Planet Rugby column. “This Wallaby side is there for the taking and if the Lions don’t win by 25 or 30, I would be immensely surprised.”
To his credit, Campo stayed very much on trend in his post-match comments on talkSPORT:
“Even at full-time, we’re behind and we kick the ball out just to get rid of the game.
“The Lions are miles ahead at the moment. We had no combinations that [had] played together and that’s why the Lions won. They should have won by more, they should have won by 30 points and they should win the second one by 30.
“Next week will be a totally different [Wallaby] team as well. That’s what this Kiwi coach of Australia wants to do, every week he’s a picked a different team!
“You cannot do that at this level and that’s why the best teams always win, because they’ve got combinations, confidence and tonight the Lions showed a lot of confidence and they finished the job.”
It took Joe Schmidt’s charges the best part of an hour to get their act together, and by the time they did the game has already been lost. Campo was right. The Lions could, and probably should have won by 30. But instead of going down with all hands, the crew of the good ship “Wallaby” has been able to hang on to some hopeful shreds of flotsam and jetsam floating in the water. Australia scored three tries in the last 25 minutes, and that counts for something in the frame of a three-Test series. A 27-19 scoreline sounds a lot, lot better than the 42-15 mugging Campese predicted.
As Campo suggests, the key will be whether Schmidt can shape more cohesive combinations in time to win the two remaining games in Melbourne and Sydney. The Kiwi supremo’s ultimate fight this week will have been with himself, and the intellectual arthritis which whispers in his ear, “stick with the same team, give it another shot”.
The raw stats from Brisbane show that is something Schmidt could not afford to do. Although Australia had more of the ball, they did less with it than the Lions: 136 carries for 299 total metres with five line-breaks, compared to 107 carries and 408m, with seven line-breaks by their opponents.
Where the Lions were prepared to use the second pass more often to unlock the defence, with 53% of their attacking plays moving further than 10m from the previous ruck or set-piece, only 36% of plays by Australia achieved the same goal.
The Wallabies were resolutely one-out even though they lacked the power ball-carriers to justify the policy.
Valetini may have been out of the reckoning, but Skelton had declared he was “raring to go” before the first Test, only to be excluded from the matchday squad. Angus Bell was only given half an hour off the bench, and Tupou was dropped entirely. Australia waved goodbye to their power ball-carrying up front when that quartet disappeared.
The other power-carrying position is 12 in the backs, and Schmidt opted to move Len Ikitau in one space from his most natural spot at outside centre. Ikitau was never less than game and willing, but he does not have the same impact in heavy traffic as a Sione Tuipulotu or a Bundee Aki. That is not his game.
The conclusion was staring Schmidt in the face. The Wallaby supremo needs more oomph from the power-carrying positions to make his ‘vertical offence’ work. Valetini has come back – that was a no-brainer. Bell should begin the game at loose-head and play at least one hour, rather than being named on the bench again. Skelton starts and needs to be on the field for 35 minutes or more. Despite all the misgivings about his form, the Wallaby coaches should have returned once more to the deep well of talent that is Tupou, and try again to coax 20 minutes of explosive activity out of him.
In the backs, there were two obvious solutions: shift Ikitau back to his natural spot at 13 and select the Queensland Reds trio of Tate McDermott, Tom Lynagh and Hunter Paisami at nine, 10 and 12. Whatever his limitations as a passer or kicker, the threat McDermott presents around the ruck would open up opportunities elsewhere, while Paisami enjoyed the most impactful performance of any Australian 12 in Queensland’s game against the tourists: 10 runs for 41m with two clean breaks and six tackle busts.
His presence would have at least given Aki, who plays ahead of the injured Tuipulotu, pause for thought. And wouldn’t Lynagh enjoy life that little bit more, when he looks first right, then left and sees club-mates both inside and outside him? You bet he would.
One of the key changes in that model is the shift of Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i from centre to the right wing, with young Waratah Max Jorgensen moving over to the other flank. The negatives of starting the ex-Sydney Rooster in midfield far outweighed the positives in Brisbane. Schmidt has seen fit to deploy him at 13 again in Melbourne.
The first Test began with a Lions turnover after only 17 seconds of play, from ball JAS took into contact.
It takes time to acquire the body control to absorb contact efficiently, while maintaining the right relationship with your cleanout supports and making an accurate ball-placement. That turnover cost Australia three points, and they ‘conceded’ another seven when a Sua’ali’i try was disallowed in the second half.
The ex-leaguer topples over the low tackle of Ben Earl and falls straight into the arms of Jack Conan and Aki without having the opportunity to present the ball. If he was not penalised for ‘holding on’, he would have been pinged for a double movement on the ground. Sua’ali’i is on the steepest of learning curves at the tackle area in union, and it cost the Wallabies 10 points they sorely needed.
Shifting Sua’ali’i wider out would create more chances to make his aerial ability really count. When Australia tried to run their star man up the middle from short kick-offs, Lions flanker Tadhg Beirne was always there to head him off at the pass.
The visitors eventually won that contest 3-0, and Australia had no more luck when they tried to involve JAS via a short chip in midfield.
If the Wallabies cannot get Sua’ali’i involved on attack in the middle of the field without risk of turning ball over, they may as well move him to a spot where there is more space for his skillset to shine.
The move also makes sense from a defensive viewpoint.
In both cases, the Lions are looking to split Ikitau away from his centre partner so they can isolate Sua’ali’i in defence. In the first instance they persuade the Brumbies man to follow through on to Finn Russell, leaving Sua’ali’i in a one-on-one with Tommy Freeman. In the second, the actions of Russell and Jamison Gibson-Park decoy the Wallaby D back to the short side and Ikitau is still buried in the ruck, again exposing Sua’ali’i to direct attack.
This is the ideal picture for the Lions: Sua’ali’i in direct opposition to Tuipulotu and unsure whether he will carry, pass short to Huw Jones or behind to Hugo Keenan [out of shot]. In the event Tuipulotu picks Keenan and the visitors score a try which was subsequently disallowed for a double movement in the tackle by Jones. It is natural to expect Ikitau to be able to defend the options off Tuipulotu better than Sua’ali’i, given his status as one of the best 13s on planet rugby.
Campese has changed his tune, and he is predicting 3-0 for the Lions and a 30-point thrashing for the Wallabies at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes: beware of Greeks bearing gifts.
Shortly after the 2001 Lions had won the first Test in Brisbane conclusively 29-13, I remember having dinner with Graham Henry in Melbourne. I passed some newspaper clippings from the State of Origin series which had just finished across the table. Queensland had bounced back from a heavy 26-8 defeat to New South Wales in game two and scored eight tries en route to a 40-14 rout of the same opponents in the decisive game.
It was a portent, and it remains so even if Australia are no longer the champion team they were 24 years ago. The Wallabies of yore duly reversed the result at the Gabba by winning at the Docklands Stadium seven days later, 35-14. The Australian sportsman is never dead and buried, it is a shallow grave and he is waiting to claw at the dirt, ready for resurrection. One week a rooster, the next a feather duster.
I like reading your stuff when it reinforces my less informed view. I have said all along we need to keep the game narrow and smash them with size. I’d have run Kerevi out for AUNZ to see if his good form in Japan stood the step up in class, and I’d never have had Williams ahead of LSL or Robertson ahead of Tupou.
I have assumed all along that Schmidt was smarter than other coaches but persisting with playing Ikitau away from a position where he is world’s best to accommodate JAS is frustrating at best.
Skelton and Valetini back in seems like we’re half pregnant - why not go all in?
It’s a grey Melbourne day here, and it’s predicted to rain all evening. The sort of game we’re likely to have will suit forwards who never stop and halves with great control. I suspect we’re bested in both, but will make some noise to encourage a different outcome than seems obvious.
Yes I’d also have liked to see Kerevi have a run, reports suggested he was back to full fitness in Japan and he can handle that heavy carrying load better than Lenny.
If rain is predicted then set-piece will be crucial and there will be a lot of pressure on Wilson and Valetini to support Nick Frost as alternate receivers. Could be a Lions pressure point.
Hi Nick, great article. I always try to give Joe Schmidt the benefit of the doubt since he is clearly a great rugby brain. But it is hard to understand why he would leave guys like Bell on the bench, and exclude other more powerful players.
What do you think his plan/tactic was?
It seemed like a strong line out and kick chase team on paper for test 1. And a strong ruck disruption team.
Also with JAS, what are the pros to him playing in the centres that we are missing? He clearly needs to be on the field, but why does JS think the balance is better with him there not on the wing?
I do think Slipper deserves his spot in the 23, but starting ahead of Gus?? Aussie needs more forward ball-carrying from the start in Schmidt’s attack and Bell + Skelton gives you that.
I guess Joe wants the offloading game JAS showed v England but it’s pretty plain D coaches target the ball and his inexperience in contact right now, so the negatives outweigh the positives.
Schmidt is a good technician but woeful selector. The entire First Nations front row should be in after their scrum dominance during the week. Slipper is a great servant but held together with tape.
Loto should be in at blindside with Bobby V at 8 with Wilson dropped. Wilson also a good servant but doesn’t bust tackles and has poor ball handling. Probably also put Samu on the bench given donaldsons versatility.
Amatosero is a better long term prospect than Williams and should be on the bench.
Gamble has shown he’s better than McReight in both of his games against the Lions. Drop McReight and start Tizano with Gamble off the bench.
A much better balanced and more powerful team than Schmidt has selected.
I think Tupou dserved another shot as he showed something in that game, BPA too for his scrumming prowess. Ieli is far too young [as yet] but he is a comer.
The LSL experiment #6 is well and truly outdated but he deserves a spot in any 6/2 bench behind Skelton. as a second row. But Tom Hooper could certainly start ahead of Harry W.
You may be right about that!
That would be about the worst start to a game I have seen a top ten team make in a long time. The cleaners were just asleep when Joesph S went into contact. That whole first half was awful to watch.
“but Skelton had declared he was “raring to go” before the first Test, only to be excluded from the matchday squad.” I had assumed he was in fact held back as he was still not fully fit, Nick. That is appalling if he was simply left on the outer. Not starting Bell was a very strange decision.
Joe Schmidt has from in making odd, and in my view damaging, decisions. You would recall his leaving out Devin Toner for the Japan RWC. His lineout dominance had been supreme for years for Leinster and Ireland. Do you think he had lost form enough to be left out. I ask as you were working as an analyst then with Stuart Lancaster at Leinster. I also disagreed with the leaving out of John Cooney, who was one of the top scrumhalves in Europe at that time.
When I read Skelton’s comments I thought, ‘Oh he’s fit’ Miz. Then Joe’s comments seemed like a contradiction, esp when he said he could have played in a crunch game!
No idea why Angus Bell does not start I’m afraid.
Yes. Dev Toner. Never a great all-round forward but always superb lineout value. Maybe Joe needs a Jase Ryan to counterpoint him?
The cavalry returning will help ensure the game isn't men against boys up front but another area of improvement is defence - 30 missed tackles at Lang Park last Saturday is far too many.
After the 1st Test, Joe Schmidt said to Morgan Turinui that the tourists were so far offside they were standing next to the Wallabies when we were on attack. Hopefully Joe has planted the seed in the mind of the officiating team
Yep this offside thingy will not go away will it?
I don’t think Joe likes the fact that the Lions are dominating the edges of the ruck which is one of his ‘special preserves’.
That gives you impulse power off the line but it only appears to be offside!
“After the 1st Test, Joe Schmidt said to Morgan Turinui that the tourists were so far offside they were standing next to the Wallabies when we were on attack”
I’m afraid that is just rubbish ! I sat high in the stands, and in judging the offside/not offside situations, one can be very accurate for a fair segment of the field. What struck me was the discipline the Lions had. Well onside as the ball was lifted from the ground, then moving in an organised line to kill the docile one out plays of the WB’s.
Sure there were blatent offsides in the game, but nothing out of the ordinary. Schmidt needs to sit down and look carefully at the replay of the game.
That fighting Aussie spirit really served them well last week when they were down 24-5 early in the second, to rally back to 27-19 and dominate the last quarter was really impressive. I dont subscribe to the thought that the Lions took their foot off the gas. The Lions are not flawless. This group goes through periods in matches where they run riot and then through other periods where their game almost devolves as they try to play too much and lose all momentum falling flat. The strongest most consistent part of their game is their defence. I feel like the weakest part could be their set piece especially that creaky scrum which really should be doing better against Australia. If this Lions side was playing against the Springboks or All Blacks they would not be winning collisions and their set piece would be under serious scrutiny. Australia must try to do better in the collisions and put more pressure on the Lions set piece. They must bring line speed and power to their defence. They cannot afford to give up any soft tries and they must bring urgency at the start of the game. They need to force the Lions to play on their terms and to play from behind. If the Lions race out to an early lead all bets are off, if they keep momentum for a protracted period the game will be up. Australia must spoil, harass, frustrate and compete in every ruck, maul, scrum and lineout. Its time to face the Lions head on.
This Lions team is characterised by playing periods of incredibly skilful passages fo rugby lasting maybe 20-30 minutes, then hitting flat spots whihc often last even longer!
They cannot pressure the Lions lineout with the ppl they have picked - quite the opposite - and hey cannot pressure the scrum without Bell starting, and BPA and Tupou on the bench.
They could however take their cue from the First Nations, who played no rugby at all but harried the Lions to distraction!
Thanks Nick.
Your are right of course, just as you were right last week about Sua’ali’i…and I was wrong.
Something or other just isn't right in the Schmidt camp, or so it seems to me.
Last week Joe was cool and calm with his selections…even though Bell was the only go forward guy in the entire team, then only for a quarter of the game. I suppose Schmidt feels somewhat vindicated, given we only lost by 8.
It’s a mirage.
I’ve never seen a team thrashed so comprehensively lose by so little!
So he does finally get back 3 guys who can gain metres in contact, but no mention of others who could too such as LSL, Tupou, and even BPA. I understand not picking guys with attitude issues, but LSL has actually delivered. I was sure (in my head) that LSL and possibly Tuopo would be on the bench.
Maybe something else is happening?
I don’t know what it is though…..but it seems to have something to do with consistent messages.
Yes I agree with this impression, hard to put your finger on it, but things seem a bit off kilter. I don’t think all the toing and froing over the new coach has helped. No Cronno, no Lord and no Geoff Parling now. This is not succession planning as we know it!
My own feeling is that Joe has backed himself into a corner with selection and cannot see a way out. As you say LSL has been one of the best forwrds to play the Lions on this tour but he doesn’t even seem to be on the fringes of selection.
Maybe OJ was right after all🤣
Thanks for giving us a chance NB. I am a little bit nervous that the flaws you have identified haven’t been addressed but we should at least have a bit more go forward in our pack and with big Willie, if we do get a chance a couple of metres out, he might hopefully at least trigger some of the Leinster men.
It’s a little bit of both isn’t it Ally? I think Joe his hedged his bets.
No changes in the back, Will added up front but no changes to the B/R to add another lineout player.
Lions have four good options there with Itoje, Chessum, Beirne and Conan, so they will go on the offensive there.
Thanks Nick. Roy and hg once said of campo “the thing you’ve gotta remember about Campo is….he’s an idiot”. I found it funny and harsh at the time but some of his comments justify the assessment.
I see Joe listened to your views on skelton. Can’t understand benching Bell. If it is to prop up Robbo then surely that is another example of weakening our few world class players to accommodate another…
From those clips I do not doubt Joseph’s commitment. But how on earth can you learn that position at this level. I am taking very very low hopes into this test. I can foresee some improvement but I just struggle to see us winning.
Yes they do and I sometimes wonder if O John is his life coach!
But surely you’ve got to have Tom Hooper for lineout and Bell starting? Surely.😁
We will undoubtedly get some comments wanting Sua ali i to be moved to 12 or even 10 as a poster on the other place wanted.
All the arguments made in your previous article Nic concerning why he should be played on the wing or at 15 were totally reinforced last Saturday.
I'm a supporter of Joe's appointment but I cannot understand this continuing blind spot by him and other coaches to the difficulties league converts face in being rushed to play at 12 or 13 in test matches.
I feel sorry for the guy. He’s never going to say ‘no, I’m not playing there’ but the spot is doing him no favours at all right now. It’s not his fault.
At 14 he could be a star even in the remainder of this series.
I agree. I was hoping Joe is seeing something we aren’t but Joseph looks so confused in defence. Fair enough, he’s learning the game. And I could see him being more comfortable at 14!
Nice one Nick. I was a fan of Joe’s appointment and think in general he has done well, and I even think the game plan last week was ok, but I am not sold he has gotten his selections right for this series. As everyone has detailed, the pack was too small last week. This week, he has brought in skelton and valetini which is an improvement physicality-wise but now the back 5 is out of balance with only one legitimate lineout option in Frost. The wallabies were poor in the lineout and it meant they couldn’t get into the lions 22 in the 1st half. Its also where most WBs tries originate from. Are they going to opt for a scrum every penalty they get? 3 man lineouts? And as you show, Suaalii is simply too hesitant in D. I guess drifting is better than biting in and taking yourself out of play, but he doesn’t do much more in that last clip. Maxy has 2 involvements in that play, suaalii none. At this rate, Chieka was quicker and better at integrating marika who had more to do to learn the game, than Joe with suaalii.
Do you think that Joe is hesitant to put Suaalii on the wing because he would be exposed in the backfield in terms of kicking, positioning etc? This is the only justification I can think of and also maybe why he has picked the likes of max, potter and kellaway over the likes of daugunu, pietsch and toole. The difference in selection philosophy between schmidt and rennie has come into clear focus to me recently in terms of brain vs braun, power vs graft, workrate vs impact. In my opinion, Schmidt needed to make a hard decision on starting skelton vs a backrow that had bobby and wilson in it and he hasn’t done that. I also feel like he is almost picking a team to minimise the loss rather than win. I think starting a tate, or a pietsch, or bell could’ve signalled some more intent.
Exactly NH. If the Lions bracket Frost in the lineout, they will still have a far better third option than Aussie in Beirne.
I’d agree that the backfield rotation would be a concern with JAS, but at least it is what he is used to playing 15 at the Tahs, so he must have acquired the basics of ‘the pendulum’?
The best WB season in recent memoy remains Rennie’s in 2021, when Aussie beat the Boks twice in the RC!
Am in a similar camp to you. I like Joe and I think he is building for 2027 well. But the selections haven’t been great this series. I can see the Lions being able to guess who we are throwing the ball to at lineouts…
Tupou? Et tu, Brutus?
Who else?
Tom Robertson v Gengey? Really?
Cheers NB, thoughts on the composition on the back 5 in the Wallabies pack? Frost is the only real leaper with no Hooper or Williams at 6. Valentine has to play but then Wilson has to go to the bench then.
As I’ve said many time til I’m sick in the face OM, if you pick Skelton you pick a major lineout player at 6 with him. So that means Tom Hooper right now, with Bobby Valetini winning some ball too. Harry to the bench.
Not a fan otagoman. The lineout struggled last week, and was a key reason imo the wallabies struggled in that first half as they lost any opportunity to attack in the lions half. I agree, I think schmidt had to make a hard decision between starting skelton or a backrow with both bobby and wilson. I wouldve gone 4 frost, 5 skelton, 6 hooper/samu, 7 fraser, 8 wilson/bobby OR 4 frost, 5 lukhan, 6 bobby, 7 fraser, 8 wilson. Start 1, finish the other. imo you want bobby, wilson, skelton, allan and bell to all play at least 50 minutes. Maybe Schmidt could’ve been creative and say started bobby on the bench, but then bring him on for hooper at the 30 min mark and then sub skelton at 50. So you have a weak lineout for 20 min, but you get all your key players on the park for decent minutes.