France change two for Ireland but stick with 7-1 bench tactic

This is really innovative from Galthié, he has a great rugby brain.

I saw Ben Kayser saying the French players would be livid and motivated due to the Ringrose ban etc. Galthie and Ntamack know the exact reason why the bans differ and one must assume the French squad does also. Galthie is playing silly buggers.

As the red card for Ringrose fell right before a fallow week, he WAS released by Leinster who provided accompanying substantiation. Precedent shows club matches are included in bans in such cases. For Galthie/France alone precedents are Atonio (2023), Haouas (2023), and Danty (2024). Club matches counted for bans.

Ntamack was different because France were due to play a match the following week (versus England). Therefore Galthie COULD NOT release Ntamack. In the written decision, Galthie tried to argue that Ntamack would be released after England but had to admit that a lot depended on outcome of England match which was unknowable. On top of that Ntamack was the starting outhalf for France.

The precedents for the Ntamack situation are O’Mahony (2021) where club games did not count, and Willemse (2024) where Willemse had a 10 match ban reduced to 4 and club matches DID count for the suspension.

So Galthie has had three cases like Ringrose (Atonio, Haouas, Danty) with same outcome as Ringrose. He had one previous case like Ntamack where he succeeded, but he was aware of and even mentioned the O’Mahony case where all the ban was for International matches.

In a nutshell. Why were those players allowed club matches to count? Because they WERE released for the club games.

Why did club matches not count for O’Mahony and Ntamack? Because they WERE NOT released for the club games which meant they could not reach the evidential threshold required.

Why is he demanding a World Rugby inquiry when he knows the reasons for such decisions, has known for years, has benefitted for years? France know this and Ireland knows this.

Dupont and the French team are honorable. This wont sit well with them. I would argue this is a bigger motivator for Ireland than for France.

Conclusion: Galthie is under serious pressure to win this match

We will see how much these big French lads can run. England kept fatigue pressure on France by keeping kicks infield. A lot of kick tennis will suit Ireland as these buffallo will have to run up and down the pitch. Prendergast, Lowe, Osborne, Keenan. 4 Big kickers in the starting line up. You cannot have a stop/start match allowing this big guys to be rested before every scrum and play. Need a baseline of fatigue to bring the ceiling of damage they can do down.

France are confident which is dangerous for Ireland but also dangerous for France. The confidence and standards can drop if expectations are not met.

A stat I did see was disquieting. France are converting 56% of their 22 entries to tries. They scored a lot versus Italy, but missed a lot against England.

This resembles a bit the damage Toulouse were doing after line breaks. Flament was all over this. The defence will need to be excellent and our best defender Ringrose will not be there. That said versus England we conceded 3 points in 68 mins. We conceded 11 in 75 against Scotland but we were messing for 7 of that.

It is hard to score against Ireland.

When Aki came on versus Wales we scored 19 points in half an hour which was roughly France’s scoring rate against Wales in Paris.

France will score, but Ireland with a full performance should outscore.

As rgds the 7-1 split, Ireland will inflict physical damage like versus Springboks in Durban. I think France are underestimating Ireland’s physicality and I will be surprized if that split doesnt cause problems and backfire a little.

yeah.. game on.. let’s see what happens. Suppose deep down I prefer Ireland win.. but deeper down I don’t really care ;-)

Not surprising - the 7/1 test confirmed the tactic for Ireland.

However, Galthié may learn the hard way that the 7/1 (and 6/2) split does fail once every few attempts at it. As the boks have learned with a back going off concussed or injured early enough in the game for it to be problem.

It’s not a question of if it happens, but when. Playing it twice on the trot might be tempting fate.

Ireland are going to be tougher opposition physically and the risk of injuries will be higher.

But it is a good ploy to use against Ireland at home.

Vive la France

The French Revolution! A genuine 7-1 split! Big statement.